Lamido, Aliyu: PDP-APC equation changers‏

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ALLWELL OKPI writes that the decision of
Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State and
Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State to join
the All Progressives Congress or reconcile with
the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party,
this year, would strengthen any of the two
parties ahead of 2015
This year, 2014, would be politically busy for
several reasons.
One of them is that there is bound to be further
shifts in the political equation in terms of the
number of states controlled by the Peoples
Democratic Party and those under the control of
the All Progressives Congress.
Judging by current reality, the decision of two
governors — Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa
State and Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger
State — this year would change the equation, in
favour of either PDP or APC.
When they withdrew from the exodus of the G7
governors from the PDP to the APC, the duo
seemed to have found themselves on a political
island — somewhere in-between the two parties.
The merger of the New PDP, a splinter group,
which had seven governors – Rotimi Amaechi of
Rivers State; Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State;
Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State; Aliyu Wamakko
of Sokoto State; Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara
State, as well as Lamido and Aliyu – with APC,
went down in history as a significant political
development in Nigeria.
However, the announcements by Lamido and
Aliyu that they were not part of the move
reduced the impact of the move that would have
turned PDP into the minority in terms of number
states under its control.
When the dust settled on that fateful Tuesday,
November 26, 2013, PDP had 18 governors; APC
had 16, the Labour Party and the All Progressives
Grand Alliance had one each.
Dissociating himself from the move to APC,
Lamido said he was not willing to leave PDP in
which he was a founding member; while Aliyu
said he had decided to see the end of the peace
move initiated by President Goodluck Jonathan.
Analysts have postulated diverse reasons why
these two governors developed cold feet when it
was time to implement the decision of the New
PDP, to which they belonged, to join APC.
However two facts are obvious. They are
currently not members of APC and are still being
seen as rebels in PDP.
Shortly after Aliyu announced that he was
staying back, all the 25 local government
chairmen elected on the platform of the PDP in
his state, praised him for that decision to remain
in PDP, making it obvious that his political base
must have pressured him to withdraw.
On the part of Lamido, it is believed that he had
considered his political future vis-à-vis the fact
that the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission had arraigned two of his sons over
an alleged N10bn fraud.
It was also speculated that former President
Olusegun Obasanjo and some northern elders,
whom he respects, might have advised Lamido
against joining APC at the moment.
However, while they remain in limbo, both sides –
APC and PDP – have not ceased from pulling all
strings to win them over.
After their meeting with the President Jonathan
last Sunday, there had been several
underground moves to make it difficult for them
to choose APC over PDP; while on the other hand,
APC has not given up on them.
The National Publicity Secretary of the now
defunct New PDP recently said Lamido and Aliyu
were only giving Jonathan a long rope to ‘hang
himself before moving to the APC.’
Also laying credence to the fact that APC is still in
pursuit of Lamido and Aliyu, Governor Nyako of
Adamawa, said both of them would likely join APC
in January 2014.
It is also worthy of note, that one week after their
meeting with the President, neither Lamido nor
Aliyu has announced a shift of grounds in their
opposition to the Bamanga Tukur leadership of
the PDP and Jonathan’s second term bid.
This has left two of them with the options of
swimming across to join their colleagues in APC
or reconciling with Tukur, their sworn enemy.
Analysing the situation, a senior lecturer in the
Department of Political Science at the University
of Abuja, Prof. Dauda Saleh, told SUNDAY PUNCH
that of two options, Lamido and Aliyu were better
off reconciling with Tukur and remaining in PDP.
Saleh said Governor Aliyu, in particular, retreated
from joining APC for fear of losing his political
base, which would have ended his political
career.
He said, “In the case of Sule Lamido, one cannot
say the case his two sons have with EFCC had
anything to do with his decision to stay back in
PDP. Sule Lamido was one of the G34 members,
who mobilised under Dr. Alex Ekwueme and the
late Chief Solomon Lar to present a letter to Gen.
Sani Abacha asking him not to contest. He
played a very significant role in the formation of
the PDP and it will be very unwise for him, as he
rightly said, to leave the party he helped to build
and join another party.
“In the case of Babangida Aliyu, it is an issue of
his political home base being shaky. He was not a
member of PDP. He was only drafted into it so
that he could contest the governorship of Niger
State. His domestic base is shaky; that’s why he
cannot leave PDP now. Already, the former
governor, Abdulkadir Kure, and Prof. Jerry Gana
are waiting on the side to take over the structure
of the PDP, once he leaves. Aliyu has seen that if
he moves to another party, he will lack the
political base to pursue any ambition in the
future.”
Contrary to speculations that the two governors
would eventually join APC, Saleh predicted that
the two governors will reconcile with the
leadership of the PDP so as to preserve their
political future.
“I see them reconciling because they have no
option other than remaining in the PDP unless
they want to commit political suicide. I can’t see
Babangida Aliyu surviving outside PDP if he
wants to remain relevant. Also, I don’t see
Lamido remaining relevant in national politics
outside PDP,” Saleh said.
Another political scientist, Prof. Francis Fagbohun
of the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, said
the political drama was still unfolding; making it
difficult to speak about the next move of the
governors with certainty.
Fagbohun said the only way Lamido and Aliyu
could show that they were willing to reconcile
with Tukur’s leadership in PDP was if they
desisted from holding meetings with the five
erstwhile PDP governors, who are now in APC.
He said, “Ordinarily, one would have expected
that the two of them would join the others when
they moved to APC. But now, if they still hold
meeting with the five that are now in APC, then it
means they want to stay in PDP to fight from
within and would eventually join APC. But if they
stop meeting with them, then it means they
have decided to reconcile with the main PDP.
Either way, I think they are just playing politics
with the whole thing.
“I don’t know why PDP did not expel them till the
time they left. I hear now that the President has
initiated a peace move that is aimed at bringing
back the five governors to PDP. I think it is a
function of the fact that there is no ideology in
our politics. If our political parties have
ideologies, the moment you say you are moving
from one party to another, it means you are
changing ideological base; that’s political
suicide.”
Similarly, another political analyst, the Executive
Director, African Centre for Leadership, Strategy
and Development, Dr. Otive Igbuzor, said none of
the possibilities could be ruled out.
He said, “It is difficult say whether they will
reconcile with the leadership of the PDP and the
President, because in politics you take decisions
based on your own analysis of what is better for
you and your constituency. I think they don’t
feel confident and comfortable enough to move
over to the APC.
“There may be other reasons known to them
alone. We can only guess. Generally I think what
is happening is good for the politics of the
country because in a modern democracy, there
is the need to have a strong opposition, so that
the opposition would have the possibility of
taking power from the ruling party. It would keep
the ruling party on its toes.”