Ogbodo: Now That Tukur Is Gone...What Next?

www.twitter.com/platform9ja


THIS is not the time for the PDP to grope for definite direction. The enemy is not only formidable, but also vicious. That the PDP could not reach quickly the simple decision of what to do with its 79-year old chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, accused of causing all the trouble in the house does not tell well of Africa’s biggest political party. Suddenly, sacking Tukur became as difficult as containing the opposition.

  Yet all it would have taken to defuse the tension was for President

 Jonathan to come out one cool evening on national television to say something like “nobody is bigger than our great party, the PDP, and if it requires Alhaji Bamanga Tukur’s head or even my own head or both heads to save the party from sinking, they shall be presented on a platter of gold.” The man would have been applauded as an ‘action man’ and ‘President with a clue’ by the unstable Nigerian crowd.

The President probably laid back because he did not know that the PDP had transformed to a rampaging demon, which required blood sacrifice to remain peaceful. Even if he knew, he could not have known at the same time that the choice of who to sacrifice was helplessly between himself (for refusing to decouple from the 2015 presidential election) and Tukur (for acting as a stumbling block). Since kings are not meant to be sacrificed to enthrone communal peace, the lot fell squarely on Tukur. And that was precisely what happened last week.

  After a series of false starts, Chairman Tukur was eventually decapitated. He submitted his resignation letter at a meeting of the PDP’s National Executive Council presided over by President Jonathan, and according to reports, specifically convened to ‘kill’ Tukur. With the sacrifice performed, it is hoped that the bloodthirsty demon is sufficiently assuaged and will return to its abode to  allow peace to reign in the PDP household. If however peace remains elusive in spite of the big sacrifice, it thus means that the demon has not taken enough blood.

  Meanwhile the drama has been breathtaking and it is possible to forget the sequence of events. It all started when the so-called new PDP (which has since fused into the APC) was reportedly floated by the dissenting governors of Adamawa, Rivers, Kwara, Niger, Kano, Jigawa, Niger and Sokoto States and their supporters to protest the continued stay of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as chairman of the main PDP. Today, Tukur is gone and the question that should follow is: will his exit translate to peace in the troubled PDP house?

  Not exactly and that is because the call for the removal of Chairman Tukur is only a sub plot of the larger plot to stop President Jonathan from seeking re-election under the PDP platform in 2015. In which case, until Jonathan’s own blood is shed, the demon will not be appeased.

  Even so, it is too early or even pessimistic to conclude that the exit of Tukur will not bring peace to the PDP. In a nutshell, Tukur’s sin was that he started rather too early to see visions about 2015. He saw grave danger for President Jonathan if nothing was done to limit the near infinite powers of the governors in party affairs. The governors held firmly the party structures at the state and to some extent national levels and they could deploy these structures to whatever purpose they wanted. Part of the things they could do so easily with their enormous powers would be to mobilise their state delegates against Jonathan’s candidacy in the all-important convention to pick the PDP presidential flag bearer for the 2015 election.

  It is the easiest and cheapest way of killing Jonathan, who has been resisting death regarding 2015. The impression that was conveyed was Tukur was prepared, even at the stake, to save the President from that terrible fate. If it were in Warri and much of the Niger Delta, the fallen Tukur would be hailed as Jonathan’s egbe wedger - trouble stopper. Now that the defender has been effectively dislodged, does it therefore mean that the target is completely exposed to danger and ultimate liquidation?

  The answer could be either yes or no because that assertion is only a side of the coin and the dark side for that matter. The other side presents hope and the possibility of retrieving the defecting PDP politicians from the jaws of the APC. The argument to support this hope is quite simple. If Tukur was the problem, his removal should not only stem the flight to APC, but cause those that had left to return to the fold. If it does not happen this way, which is very likely, it means all the investments in terms of time; effort and resources to oust Tukur would have gone down the drain.

  Needless to say that President Jonathan is strictly on his own, going forward. He has neither said ‘yes’ nor ‘no’ to 2015; but to continue to stay in reckoning, he may have to seek more creative ways of engaging the knotty issues of the day. For now, part of the assumptions is that the things, including the dissolution of party executive councils in states where the governors refused to act the central script, that Tukur did as the big boss will be undone in continuation of the pacification of the fleeing PDP members.

 A reversal means the governors, particularly, Murtala Nyako and Rotimi Amaechi of Adamawa and Rivers States who had been torpedoed from the party leadership at the state level, will be restored unconditionally to follow their minds. This will be most injurious to Jonathan’s plan.

  After the deed, the meeting had burst into a praise song to eulogise the deposed chairman. They all chorused: “he (Tukur) is a good fellow; he is a good fellow; he is a good fellow; and so say all of us...” If the old man was that good, why did the PDP tribe make life so difficult for him? The ‘all of us’ in that chorus included House of Reps Speaker, Aminu Tambulwa, one of those reportedly programmed to clash with President Jonathan in the bid for the tenancy of Aso Rock Villa in 2015 and who saw the sinking of Tukur as an advantage in the big fight.

  In any case, the Speaker as a political being has always proved bigger than his creator – the PDP. First, he had ascended the throne in spite of his platform, which had slated the nation’s number five job for another player, a lady from the Southwest called Mulikat Adeola-Akande. And since that epic victory against the PDP, Tambuwal has remained uncontainable and has been carrying on like a conqueror. Unlike others however, he has refused to quit the PDP for the APC, thus making it extremely difficult for President Jonathan to properly identify his enemies and draw a clear battle line.

  With the sacking of Bamanga Tukur by forces within, the President’s enemies have become even more fluid. Precisely, who is for or against Jonathan in the PDP? For instance, at a time when the support of the Southeast for Jonathan was taken for granted, Governor Martins Elechi of Ebonyi State recklessly allowed a Freudian slip when he described the proposed national conference as a waste of precious time and resources because it would bring no changes in the end. This was interpreted as a frontal attack on the President who sees the conference as one of the star decisions of his administration. In the aftermath, the governor relocated to Abuja to explain profusely that he was misquoted by reporters.


  And in much of last week, Akwa Ibom State Governor, Godswill Akpabio struggled to discharge the allegation that he was on collision course with President Jonathan on the matter of 2015. Merely denying the claim by words of mouth proved insufficient. Generous announcements were made in the media calling on the President, First Lady, the PDP and other stakeholders “to discountenance this evil conspiracy of lies and falsehood...by desperate and unscrupulous politicians.” Both men are seen within and outside the PDP as arch defender and loyalists of President Jonathan.

  Clearly, these are unusual times for Jonathan and the PDP. The issues are much deeper than what gets thrown up to the surface and as the countdown to 2015 continues, what people say or do not say may not matter anymore. Rather, what will swing the tide is the unique strategy that Jonathan has adopted to engage the issues. And he must hold this battle plan very close to his chest like an ace card for the simple reason that the dividing line between his friends and enemies has become imperceptible.